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OTT to Make up 46% of Western Europe TV Revenue by 2023
While OTT is growing rapidly, don't look for it to eclipse pay TV until 2027. Netflix's domination of the SVOD market will only get bigger.

Over-the-top (OTT) revenues are growing fast in Western Europe. According to Digital TV Research, OTT revenues for TV shows and movies (including ad-supported content) will more than double from $10 billion in 2017 to $23 billion in 2023. At that time, OTT will count for 46 percent of total TV revenue in the region. 

During the same period, pay TV revenues in Western Europe will fall by $2 billion. While the trend is clear, don't look for OTT to eclipse pay TV for several more years.

"I don't think that OTT revenues will overtake traditional pay TV until about 2027 so there is still some life left in traditional pay TV. There hasn't been much cord-cutting in Western Europe," says Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

Looking only at subscription services, Digital TV Research says revenues will reach $12.5 billion in Western Europe by 2023. That's an increase from $4.4 billion in 2017. While it's a fast-growing area, it's dominated by one player: Netflix counted for 52 percent of the pool in 2017, and will take 57 percent by 2023.

"Western Europe's traditional pay TV sector is maturing rapidly, but there is still a lot of growth to be had in OTT—including AVOD and SVOD," Murray says. "AVOD is particularly strong in Western Europe given the market positions of the free-to-air broadcasters. However SVOD revenues overtook AVOD in 2016."

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